Seven keys to understand the November 10 election results

Publicado por MAS Consulting Sin comentarios

1.- Polarization and fragmentation.

These two words define the results, as it is happening in other countries of our environment. The new Congress will probably be the one with the most political parties in our entire history and the division into blocks between left-wing and right-wing formations is increasingly accentuated. And a third conclusion can be drawn: after these elections, the governability scenario is practically the same as after the previous elections.

2.- The PSOE fails in its strategy.

It aspired to significantly increase its number of seats in order to gain strength in negotiations with Podemos in facing the formation of a government, but it has not achieved this objective, remaining practically with the same results. Pedro Sánchez finds himself again in the same impasse: he can aspire again to the Moncloa, but he will have to negotiate again with Podemos and will need the support (or abstention) of independentist parties.

3.- Vox is the surprise of the night and the great winner.

Although some polls predicted a great rise, the experience of the previous elections (where the high expectations generated were not fulfilled) made them cautious. In this case, however, they have surpassed even their best predictions, becoming the third political force and revolutionizing the Spanish politics.

4.- The PP consolidates itself as a second force, with a rise of more than 20 seats.

A greater abstention, the return to centrism and the incipient economic crisis (remembering the 2008 crisis) have benefited it. However, the right-wing block does not manage to add up and, furthermore, it finds itself with a strong vote bleeding towards Vox, which is the one that grows the most in this block.

5.- Ciudadanos, the great loser.

From being the third force in Congress, it has become the sixth, even below ERC. The strategy of losing its centrality and turning to the right has been a failure, as many of its voters have fled to other formations. Difficult situation for Albert Rivera, whose leadership is badly damaged.

6.- Podemos (and Pablo Iglesias) go down, but resist.

At the beginning of the campaign, there were rumours saying that the debacle could be even greater than the one it has finally suffered. The possibility of being punished for appearing to be the «guilty» of the left not governing, together with the irruption of Más País (which has failed noisily), predicted a very difficult campaign for purple formation. However, Pablo Iglesias once again holds in his hand the key to the Moncloa.  

7.- The nationalists replicate the results of April.

The nationalist parties have practically repeated their results with regard to the previous elections, which shows the high fidelity of their voters. PNV and Bildu once again dominate the Basque Country and Catalonia continues to be a powder keg. Although the most outstanding new is the strong irruption of CUP in Congress, the two blocks (independentist and non-independentist) are practically tied again. The procés judgement, which has attracted so much attention in the campaign, has not changed the results in Catalonia, although it has in the rest of Spain, according to Vox’s results.

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